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win-loss-analysis.md
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1# Win-Loss Analysis
3How to turn deal outcomes into evidence about why you win and lose, and against whom.
Win-Loss Analysis
How to turn deal outcomes into evidence about why you win and lose, and against whom.
Raw lines 1 to 45## Sources and Their Bias
7| Source | What it's good for | Bias to correct for |
8|--------|-------------------|---------------------|
9| CRM closed-lost reasons | Volume, trends over time | Rep-entered, often at close, skewed toward "price," "timing," and "no decision." Rarely names a product gap. |
10| CRM closed-won notes | Which segments and competitors you beat | Thin. Reps rarely document why they won. |
11| Call transcripts | The buyer's own words mid-deal | Shows what was said, not what decided it. Late-stage calls matter more than discovery. |
12| Buyer interviews (won and lost) | The actual decision and who made it | Small samples. Lost buyers are polite, so ask for specifics. |
13| Churned-customer notes | Gaps that showed up after the sale | Not a loss to a competitor unless they switched. Keep separate. |
15When sources disagree, prefer the buyer's words over the rep's summary. "Price" in the CRM often turns out to be "didn't see enough value for the price" in the interview.
Sources and Their Bias
| Source | What it's good for | Bias to correct for |
|---|---|---|
| CRM closed-lost reasons | Volume, trends over time | Rep-entered, often at close, skewed toward "price," "timing," and "no decision." Rarely names a product gap. |
| CRM closed-won notes | Which segments and competitors you beat | Thin. Reps rarely document why they won. |
| Call transcripts | The buyer's own words mid-deal | Shows what was said, not what decided it. Late-stage calls matter more than discovery. |
| Buyer interviews (won and lost) | The actual decision and who made it | Small samples. Lost buyers are polite, so ask for specifics. |
| Churned-customer notes | Gaps that showed up after the sale | Not a loss to a competitor unless they switched. Keep separate. |
When sources disagree, prefer the buyer's words over the rep's summary. "Price" in the CRM often turns out to be "didn't see enough value for the price" in the interview.
Raw lines 5 to 1617## Coding Scheme
19Code each deal with one **primary reason**, optional secondary reasons, a supporting quote or note, and the source.
21| Code | Use when |
22|------|----------|
23| Product fit | A missing or weaker capability decided it. Name the capability. |
24| Price / value | Total cost or perceived value decided it. Note whether it was absolute budget or value-for-price. |
25| Onboarding / time to value | Implementation effort, time, or services decided it. |
26| Trust / risk | Security, references, company size, or vendor risk decided it. |
27| Relationship / process | Incumbent relationship, champion left, procurement, or a better sales process. |
28| Timing / no decision | The buyer didn't buy from anyone. Not a competitive loss. |
30Rules:
31- **One primary reason per deal**, so counts add up to the number of deals.
32- **No reason without a source.** If a deal has only a one-word CRM reason, code it but mark it low-confidence.
33- **Name the competitor** that won, or "no decision" or "built in-house." Don't infer it from who was mentioned once.
Coding Scheme
Code each deal with one primary reason, optional secondary reasons, a supporting quote or note, and the source.
| Code | Use when |
|---|---|
| Product fit | A missing or weaker capability decided it. Name the capability. |
| Price / value | Total cost or perceived value decided it. Note whether it was absolute budget or value-for-price. |
| Onboarding / time to value | Implementation effort, time, or services decided it. |
| Trust / risk | Security, references, company size, or vendor risk decided it. |
| Relationship / process | Incumbent relationship, champion left, procurement, or a better sales process. |
| Timing / no decision | The buyer didn't buy from anyone. Not a competitive loss. |
Rules:
- One primary reason per deal, so counts add up to the number of deals.
- No reason without a source. If a deal has only a one-word CRM reason, code it but mark it low-confidence.
- Name the competitor that won, or "no decision" or "built in-house." Don't infer it from who was mentioned once.
35## Interview Questions
37Ask within 2-4 weeks of the decision. Have someone other than the deal's rep do it if possible.
39- Walk me through how the evaluation started. What triggered it?
40- Who else did you look at, and how did the shortlist form?
41- What were the 2-3 criteria that mattered most by the end?
42- Where did we come out ahead? Where did we fall short?
43- Was there a moment the decision tipped? What happened?
44- If we'd changed one thing, would it have changed the outcome?
46For lost deals, push past "price": "What would you have needed to see to choose us at that price?" Avoid "If we'd been the same price, would you have chosen us?" Polite buyers say yes.
Interview Questions
Ask within 2-4 weeks of the decision. Have someone other than the deal's rep do it if possible.
- Walk me through how the evaluation started. What triggered it?
- Who else did you look at, and how did the shortlist form?
- What were the 2-3 criteria that mattered most by the end?
- Where did we come out ahead? Where did we fall short?
- Was there a moment the decision tipped? What happened?
- If we'd changed one thing, would it have changed the outcome?
For lost deals, push past "price": "What would you have needed to see to choose us at that price?" Avoid "If we'd been the same price, would you have chosen us?" Polite buyers say yes.
Raw lines 35 to 4748## Reading the Results
50- **Segment before counting**: by competitor, segment, deal size, and the stage the deal was lost at.
51- **Report counts, not percentages, at small sizes.** "6 of 9" tells the reader how much to trust it. "67%" hides it.
52- **Under ~5 deals in a slice, it's a signal to watch.** Don't put it on a battle card as a finding yet.
53- **Separate competitive losses from no-decision.** Losing to inaction calls for different fixes than losing to a competitor.
54- **Look at wins too.** The reasons you win against a competitor are what reps should lead with against them.
Reading the Results
- Segment before counting: by competitor, segment, deal size, and the stage the deal was lost at.
- Report counts, not percentages, at small sizes. "6 of 9" tells the reader how much to trust it. "67%" hides it.
- Under ~5 deals in a slice, it's a signal to watch. Don't put it on a battle card as a finding yet.
- Separate competitive losses from no-decision. Losing to inaction calls for different fixes than losing to a competitor.
- Look at wins too. The reasons you win against a competitor are what reps should lead with against them.
56## Report Format
581. **Scope**: date range, number of deals (won / lost / no decision), sources used
592. **Headline findings**: 3-5, each with a count, a quote, and the segment it applies to
603. **By competitor**: win rate where known, top reasons won, top reasons lost
614. **Confidence notes**: which findings rest on thin or one-sided data
625. **Actions**: battle card updates, new or revised objection responses, discovery questions, product gaps
Report Format
- Scope: date range, number of deals (won / lost / no decision), sources used
- Headline findings: 3-5, each with a count, a quote, and the segment it applies to
- By competitor: win rate where known, top reasons won, top reasons lost
- Confidence notes: which findings rest on thin or one-sided data
- Actions: battle card updates, new or revised objection responses, discovery questions, product gaps
64## Feeding Other Assets
66| Finding | Goes to |
67|---------|---------|
68| Why we beat a competitor | Battle card "Where we win, and for whom" |
69| Why we lose to a competitor | Battle card "When to walk away" or "Where they're strong" |
70| Recurring objection | Objection library, with the response that worked |
71| Criteria that decided deals | Discovery questions |
72| Missing capability, repeated | Product team, with deal count and revenue lost |
Feeding Other Assets
| Finding | Goes to |
|---|---|
| Why we beat a competitor | Battle card "Where we win, and for whom" |
| Why we lose to a competitor | Battle card "When to walk away" or "Where they're strong" |
| Recurring objection | Objection library, with the response that worked |
| Criteria that decided deals | Discovery questions |
| Missing capability, repeated | Product team, with deal count and revenue lost |