thesis-tracker
The facts
Its description
Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions".
The description the agent reads to decide when to use it.
When it starts
A person asks to create, update, or check the investment thesis behind a specific position or watchlist name — adding a fresh data point, reviewing why the position is held, or asking whether the thesis still holds. The description keys on thesis maintenance and position review rather than on any modeling or document task.
Things a person might say (the model's guesses)
- “Update my thesis for ACME after the Q3 earnings beat”
- “Is my thesis on NVDA still intact?”
- “Add a data point to my Tesla thesis — the new product launch slipped to Q2”
A model's summary of when it is used.
Stops for a person
1 line stops to ask a person
Lines that stop and wait for a person before going on. Found by matching words, so treat them as pointers.
Licence
Apache-2.0, from LICENSE
The terms its author shares it under, which let it be shown here.
The text
Most marks come from matching words in the file, so treat them as pointers.
Thesis Tracker
Raw lines 1 to 7Workflow
Raw lines 8 to 9Step 1: Define or Load Thesis
If creating a new thesis:
- Company: Name and ticker
- Position: Long or Short
- Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
- Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
- Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
- Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
- Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
- Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit
If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.
Raw lines 10 to 23Step 2: Update Log
For each new data point or development:
- Date: When this happened
- Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
- Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
- Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
- Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low
Step 3: Thesis Scorecard
Maintain a running scorecard:
| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |
Step 5: Output
Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation
Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.
Raw lines 52 to 60Important Notes
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions
From anthropics/financial-services at 6056506, 2026-10-28. Skills read by DeepSeek V4.1 Flash on 2026-11-04. Summary and techniques by Claude Opus 5.5 on 2026-11-06.